The headlines can be troubling at times for Michiganders. Michigan Radio reported in late August that “Michigan could already be in the early stages of a recession.” According to CNBC in mid-September, the “UAW strike threatens Michigan’s economy, could push state into recession, Moody’s and Lending Tree say.” Bloomberg stated last month that “Key election battleground Michigan is at risk of recession.”

No one knows, including the economists, when Michigan will slide into the next recession. When we do, and we certainly will at some time, most economists that I have read seem to think the next downturn will not be as dramatic as the last. But they don’t really know. Their economic models may or may not hold true.